Why a double dissolution is very unlikely

Plenty of people are talking up the chances of a doulbe dissolution election sometime during this term. I think it is very unlikely, and it seems to show a misunderstanding of what a double dissolution is- it’s a mechanism for resolving a deadlock between the houses, not within the senate or house of representatives.

To have a double dissolution, the senate needs to reject a bill twice after it is passed by the house of representatives. The independents also have an effective veto on whether a bill can be put up. Section 57 of the constitution states:

If the House of Representatives passes any proposed law, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, and if after an interval of three months the House of Representatives, in the same or the next session, again passes the proposed law with or without any amendments which have been made, suggested, or agreed to by the Senate, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, the Governor-General may dissolve the Senate and the House of Representatives simultaneously. But such dissolution shall not take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives by effluxion of time.

This means that if a bill is rejected by the senate, the independents can change their vote when it comes back to prevent a double dissolution trigger being created.

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